Energy Efficiency, Power Prices, Sourcing Renewables  -  May 24, 2018

Growth of E-buses to outpace E-cars

Sales of electric buses are expected to jump by 84% by 2030, while cars will grow by 28% in the same period. Overall, the electrification of road transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s, thanks to tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing.

 According to a long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), electric buses in almost all charging configurations will have a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019. Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transportation for BNEF, explained, "Developments over the last 12 months, such as manufacturers’ plans for model roll-outs and new regulations on urban pollution, have bolstered our bullish view of the prospects for EVs.” He added, "We now think EVs will be 55% of light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, rather than 54%, and represent 33% of the total car fleet worldwide.” The forecast calls for 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric by 2040. 

Salim Morsy, senior transportation analyst, said, "While we’re optimistic on EV demand over the coming years, we see two important hurdles emerging. In the short term, we see a risk of cobalt shortages in the early 2020s that could slow down some of the rapid battery cost declines we have seen recently. Looking further out, charging infrastructure is still a challenge."

The forecast expects that sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surge to 30 million in 2030. The increase will be driven by their cost advantage over internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. China is expected to lead the charge, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

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